A median heat pump now edges a typical gas boiler this winter

A heat pump running at the real-world UK median efficiency (SPF 2.80) is now slightly cheaper per unit of heat than a typical gas boiler at this winter’s price cap. Once you disconnect from gas and stop paying the standing charge, the heat pump also beats a modern condensing boiler for any home using less than about 19,900 kWh of heat a year. Here is how that answer comes out, what moves the break-even, and what to check in your own figures—all based on our own 30 October 2026 calculation and the sources it draws on [1].

The price cap numbers that set the break-even

The October–December 2026 price cap for Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales) sets the average electricity rate at 26.32p per kWh (with no VAT this winter) and gas at 7.97p per kWh (including 5% VAT), with daily standing charges of 54.83p for electricity and 29.68p for gas [2]. These prices are for direct debit payments and are the baseline for every cost calculation in this article [1,2].

The one ratio that decides whether a heat pump is cheaper than a gas boiler is the electricity price per kWh divided by the gas price per kWh, times the boiler’s efficiency [1]. This ratio shifted this quarter: electricity prices rose a little, but gas rose more, narrowing the gap. For October–December 2026, the electricity-to-gas price ratio is 3.302 (26.32/7.97), down from 3.562 last quarter [1].

This ratio is used to calculate the “break-even” efficiency (SPF) that a heat pump needs to match a boiler’s running cost per kWh of heat delivered.

The actual break-even: how efficient must a heat pump be?

A heat pump’s cost per kWh of heat is simply the electricity unit rate divided by its measured seasonal performance factor (SPF) [1]. For a gas boiler, it is the gas unit rate divided by the boiler’s efficiency [1]. The break-even SPF is therefore:

``` Break-even SPF = (Electricity rate / Gas rate) × Boiler efficiency

```

At this winter’s prices, the break-even SPFs are [1]:

\* 84% is the “typical fossil fuel heating system efficiency” cited by the Heat Pump Association [3]. \** 90% is an illustrative efficiency for a modern condensing boiler running well [1].

The median air source heat pump in UK homes achieved an SPF of 2.80 (280%) in the most recent large-scale field trial [4]. This means a heat pump at the median just beats the typical gas boiler per kWh of heat, but do not quite beat a top modern boiler—unless you include the gas standing charge.

What real heat pumps and boilers deliver

Our own calculation (30 October 2026) uses the latest field results: the median heat pump in the Energy Systems Catapult Electrification of Heat trial (742 installs, 2020–2022) delivered a seasonal performance factor (SPF) of 2.80—put simply, for every unit of electricity in, you get 2.8 units of heat out [1,4]. The Heat Pump Association reports a different measure, an average of 293% for the sampled air source heat pumps [3].

For gas boilers, the HPA cites 84% as typical efficiency—a figure aligned with older or average UK boilers [3]. For a well-set-up modern condensing boiler, our test uses 90% as a reasonable working assumption [1].

Plugging those real-world figures into the Ofgem-capped October–December 2026 unit rates gives this direct kWh-for-kWh cost comparison [1]:

So, at the new price cap, the median heat pump is now fractionally cheaper per kWh of heat than a typical boiler—by 0.09p. For homes running a top-performing condensing boiler at 90%, the boiler still edges it by about half a penny per kWh. As price ratios move, so does the break-even: this quarter, the electricity-to-gas price ratio dropped to 3.30, lowering the bar for heat pump efficiency to beat gas [1].

Standing charges: the hidden cost that flips the answer

On its own, per-unit cost is only half the story. If you keep paying the gas standing charge—£108.33 a year (29.68p x 365) at this winter’s rate—just for having a gas meter, it counts for neither side; only disconnecting saves it [1]. But if your home switches to all-electric heating and you can disconnect gas entirely, the standing charge saving makes a major difference.

A worked example

Suppose a home uses 10,000 kWh of heat a year (this is an example, not an average; check your own bill for your usage). At this demand, the yearly running cost is [1]:

The heat pump at median SPF costs £54.44 more on units alone than a 90% efficient boiler. But disconnecting gas saves £108.33 a year, making the heat pump £53.89 a year cheaper overall [1].

The “break-even” point—the annual heat use where a heat pump stops being cheaper than even a modern boiler—is about 19,900 kWh of heat a year at these prices. Below that, the heat pump wins once the gas standing charge is dropped [1].

\*Assumes no gas standing charge; if you still use gas for any purpose (including cooking), this saving does not apply [1].

Why this changes: price shifts, efficiency, and your usage

At this quarter's prices a median heat pump is already cheaper to run per kWh of heat than a typical boiler, even before standing charges are counted [1]. The key reason: the gap between electricity and gas prices narrowed slightly as gas rose faster than electricity this quarter [1,2].

But this break-even is sensitive to:

• Your home’s actual heat demand (from your gas bill)
• Your system’s real-world SPF (which varies widely; poor installations dip below 2.3)
• The efficiency of your gas boiler (older models can be well below 84%; best-in-class condensing models can exceed 90%)
• Whether you can remove the gas meter and stop paying the standing charge

No source gives a simple “average” UK home heat demand or typical savings for all homes; the method here lets you check with your own numbers [1].

Questions readers ask

What if my heat pump’s SPF is below the median?

If your system’s SPF is below about 2.97, it will not beat a modern condensing (90%) boiler per kWh of heat at this winter’s prices, and may not even beat a typical boiler if it falls below 2.77. Check your installer’s estimate or your own meter readings.

Do time-of-use electricity tariffs change the answer?

Yes, and the difference can be material—especially if your heat pump shifts most of its use to the lowest off-peak rates. Our test [1] looked only at single-rate tariffs, where every kWh costs the same, so its results do not cover time-of-use setups. In practice, a time-of-use tariff makes your actual running cost depend on when you run the heat pump: if you can move a large share of heating to off-peak hours, your average electricity rate drops, and the break-even SPF needed to beat a boiler falls with it. For example, if the off-peak rate is roughly half the single-rate cap, and you can run at that rate for most of your heating, the SPF threshold falls in proportion to your average electricity rate. To apply this, map your actual or planned heat pump hours against your tariff’s rate periods, calculate your weighted average unit rate, and then use the same break-even method as in our test [1], just with your new average electricity rate.

Will this still be true next year?

Not necessarily. Ofgem updates the price cap every three months. The break-even point can move if either electricity or gas prices change. Always check against the latest unit rates.

[1]: Our own calculation, 30 October 2026, full method at https://energywise.site/lab/heat-pump-breakeven-2026-q4

How the numbers work

These figures were computed for this article, not estimated by its writer. Inputs come from the numbered sources or are assumptions, labelled as such; change an assumption and the results change with it.

*Corrected 2026-10-31: Headline corrected: at this winter's price cap the median heat pump is cheaper than a typical (84%) gas boiler by 0.09p per kWh of heat, and a 90% boiler still edges it; the old headline said heat pumps are cheaper outright. Headline was: "Heat pumps are cheaper to run than gas boilers this winter".*

Sources

1. Our own data, 30 Oct 2026: Heat pump vs gas boiler break-even at the Oct-Dec 2026 price cap
2. Energy price cap unit rates and standing charges | Ofgem
3. Improvement in Heat Pump Performance highlighted by new Electrification of Heat Demonstration Report - HPA UK
4. Heat Pumps 3 x More Efficient than Boilers | Energy Systems Catapult

*Corrected 2026-10-30: At this winter's cap a heat pump needs a seasonal efficiency of about 2.97, not 2.8, to beat a 90% condensing boiler; the median heat pump (2.80) edges a typical 84% boiler by under 0.1p per kWh of heat, so 'most heat pumps' is now 'the median'. A gas standing charge you pay anyway counts for neither side; the figures are our calculation, not test data.*