Heat pumps cheaper than gas boilers in 18 EU countries

For most EU countries in early 2026, running a heat pump with typical seasonal efficiency costs less than heating with gas—if your local tariffs and your system’s real-world performance meet the averages. But what matters is where you live: the break-even point, and thus which system is cheaper, swings sharply from Sweden to Romania. The latest data from this site’s own calculation, based on Eurostat’s published household energy prices for the first half of 2026, shows exactly which side each country lands on[1].

Related guide: [A median heat pump now edges a typical gas boiler this winter](/blog/heat-pump-gas-boiler-which-cheaper-run-this-winters-price-cap).

The break-even table: which countries favour heat pumps or gas boilers?

The calculation uses national average prices for electricity and gas[1]. On top of those it makes two assumptions, labelled as such on the data page: a modern condensing boiler with an efficiency of 0.90, and a typical air-to-water heat pump with a seasonal COP (SCOP) of 3.0[1]. SCOP is a measure of a heat pump’s average efficiency across a season: a SCOP of 3.0 means delivering 3 units of heat for every unit of electricity used.

Below is the sorted break-even table: the lower the break-even SCOP, the easier it is for a heat pump to beat gas on running cost. For each country, the table shows the national average prices, the SCOP that ties the two options, and the yearly cost for each system to supply 10,000 kWh of heat (an illustrative home)[1].

At SCOP 3.0, the heat pump is cheaper in 18 out of 24 countries; at SCOP 2.5, only 11 countries favour the heat pump; and at SCOP 3.5, 21 countries do[1]. Your own home’s result may vary—this table uses national averages, not your local or individual tariff.

What affects the break-even: SCOP, tariffs, and your system

The key figure in this comparison is the break-even SCOP: the efficiency your heat pump must actually achieve over the heating season for it to cost less than gas. In Sweden, with high gas prices and moderate electricity prices, even a poorly performing heat pump (SCOP 1.25) is already cheaper to run than gas[1]. In Belgium and Romania electricity is expensive relative to gas, so a heat pump needs a SCOP above about 3.8 (Belgium) or 4.3 (Romania) to beat a gas boiler on running cost[1].

SCOP depends on:

• Climate: Colder climates can mean lower SCOP, unless the heat pump is sized and installed for those conditions.
• System design: High radiator or flow temperatures reduce SCOP.
• Insulation: Well-insulated homes let a heat pump run at lower temperatures, raising efficiency.
• Real tariffs: This calculation uses the national average price for typical household consumption (Eurostat’s “band DC” for electricity, “band D2” for gas, all taxes included)[1].

If your real electricity price is above, or your gas price below, the national average, your break-even SCOP will be higher.

A worked example: France

Suppose you are in France, where the average electricity price is 0.2485 €/kWh and gas is 0.1347 €/kWh[1]. Assume you need 10,000 kWh of heat for the year:

• Gas boiler (90% efficiency): 10,000 / 0.9 = 11,111 kWh of gas = €1,496.67 per year.
• Heat pump (SCOP 3.0): 10,000 / 3.0 = 3,333 kWh of electricity = €828.33 per year.

So the heat pump is about €670 a year cheaper to run than gas. Even a weak installation with a SCOP of 2.0 would cost about €1,242, still below gas at €1,497: in France gas only wins below a SCOP of 1.66. The break-even SCOP for France is 1.66; any heat pump above that is cheaper to run than a modern gas boiler at these prices[1].

The same method applies for any country: plug in your own prices and efficiency to see where you stand.

What this comparison leaves out

This table and its answer are about running cost only. They do not include:

• Installation cost: Heat pumps cost more than gas boilers up front, often much more. Whether the running cost saving pays back the difference depends on the install price and any grant available, which vary by country and even by region[1].
• Standing charges: A home that switches off gas entirely can also drop its gas standing charge, which is not included here[1].
• Time-of-use tariffs: Some homes pay less for electricity at off-peak times, which could improve a heat pump’s economics if it can shift some use.
• Regional or individual prices: The Eurostat averages may not match your tariff, especially if you live in an area with local taxes or special offers.
• Actual home performance: If your home is poorly insulated, or your heat pump is undersized or runs at high temperatures, your SCOP could be much lower than 3.0, making gas more attractive.

If you want to estimate your own break-even, use the formula: Break-even SCOP = (Electricity price) / (Gas price / Boiler efficiency)

Questions readers ask

How do I find my own break-even SCOP?

Take your electricity price per kWh and your gas price per kWh, and use the formula above with your boiler’s efficiency. If your heat pump’s SCOP is above the result, the heat pump is cheaper to run.

Does this mean I should switch to a heat pump right now?

Not necessarily. Even if the running cost is lower, the up-front install cost and whether you can drop your gas standing charge also matter. You’ll need to compare the payback period for your home, with your actual quotes and any grants.

What if my home can’t reach a SCOP of 3.0?

Many older or poorly insulated homes, or those with radiators needing high flow temperatures, may see lower SCOPs. In these cases, gas may still be cheaper, unless local gas prices rise or you improve insulation or system design.

How the numbers work

These figures were computed for this article, not estimated by its writer. Inputs come from the numbered sources or are assumptions, labelled as such; change an assumption and the results change with it.

Sources

1. Our own data, 2 Nov 2026: Heat pump vs gas boiler running cost, 24 EU countries, Eurostat 2026-S1