Heat pump or gas boiler: which is cheaper to run, country by country (EU, first half of 2026)
Our own calculation (2026-11-02) from Eurostat's household energy prices. For each EU country with both prices published, we worked out the break-even efficiency: the seasonal coefficient of performance (SCOP) a heat pump needs for one kWh of heat to cost less than from a gas boiler. Below it, gas is cheaper to run; above it, the heat pump is.
Method
- Electricity: Eurostat nrg_pc_204, household band DC (2,500-4,999 kWh a year), all taxes and levies included, EUR per kWh, latest half-year published (2026-S1 for every country below).
- Gas: Eurostat nrg_pc_202, household band D2 (20-199 GJ a year), all taxes and levies included, EUR per kWh, 2026-S1.
- Break-even SCOP = electricity price / (gas price / boiler efficiency). Boiler efficiency 0.90 is an assumption (a modern condensing boiler); change it and every break-even moves in proportion.
- Yearly running cost for 10,000 kWh of heat (an assumption: an illustrative home): heat pump = 10,000 / SCOP x electricity price with SCOP 3.0 (an assumption: a typical air-to-water heat pump over a season); gas = 10,000 / 0.90 x gas price.
- Not included: installation cost, standing charges (a home that drops gas also drops its gas standing charge), time-of-use tariffs, regional prices inside a country.
Results (24 EU countries)
- At SCOP 3.0 the heat pump is cheaper to run in 18 of 24 countries; at SCOP 2.5 in 11; at SCOP 3.5 in 21.
- Lowest break-even: Sweden (1.25); highest: Romania (4.30).
| Country | Electricity EUR/kWh | Gas EUR/kWh | Break-even SCOP | Heat pump EUR/yr (SCOP 3.0) | Gas boiler EUR/yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 0.3062 | 0.2201 | 1.25 | 1021 | 2446 |
| Netherlands | 0.2440 | 0.1622 | 1.35 | 813 | 1802 |
| France | 0.2485 | 0.1347 | 1.66 | 828 | 1497 |
| Portugal | 0.2367 | 0.1256 | 1.70 | 789 | 1396 |
| Denmark | 0.2375 | 0.1211 | 1.77 | 792 | 1346 |
| Bulgaria | 0.1341 | 0.0654 | 1.85 | 447 | 727 |
| Luxembourg | 0.2023 | 0.0859 | 2.12 | 674 | 954 |
| Slovenia | 0.2118 | 0.0859 | 2.22 | 706 | 954 |
| Austria | 0.3260 | 0.1240 | 2.37 | 1087 | 1378 |
| Estonia | 0.2118 | 0.0796 | 2.39 | 706 | 884 |
| Italy | 0.3142 | 0.1137 | 2.49 | 1047 | 1263 |
| Latvia | 0.2415 | 0.0812 | 2.68 | 805 | 902 |
| Greece | 0.2401 | 0.0771 | 2.80 | 800 | 857 |
| Germany | 0.3618 | 0.1156 | 2.82 | 1206 | 1284 |
| Slovakia | 0.1985 | 0.0626 | 2.85 | 662 | 696 |
| Spain | 0.2509 | 0.0787 | 2.87 | 836 | 874 |
| Czechia | 0.2884 | 0.0901 | 2.88 | 961 | 1001 |
| Ireland | 0.3871 | 0.1183 | 2.94 | 1290 | 1314 |
| Lithuania | 0.2162 | 0.0629 | 3.09 | 721 | 699 |
| Hungary | 0.1139 | 0.0330 | 3.11 | 380 | 367 |
| Croatia | 0.1816 | 0.0502 | 3.26 | 605 | 558 |
| Poland | 0.2999 | 0.0730 | 3.70 | 1000 | 811 |
| Belgium | 0.3575 | 0.0846 | 3.80 | 1192 | 940 |
| Romania | 0.2836 | 0.0594 | 4.30 | 945 | 660 |
What this does not tell you
- Whether a heat pump pays back its installation: that needs the install cost and any grant, which vary by country and home.
- A real home's SCOP depends on climate, insulation and flow temperature; the break-even column lets a reader compare their own.
- Prices are national averages for one consumption band; a reader's own tariff can differ a lot.
Sources
- Eurostat, Electricity prices for household consumers - bi-annual data (nrg_pc_204): https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_pc_204/default/table
- Eurostat, Gas prices for household consumers - bi-annual data (nrg_pc_202): https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_pc_202/default/table